Here it is, the moment you’ve all been waiting for — all seven of my devoted readers, that is. (While I’ve mentioned you, I’d like to thank everyone for the kind words regarding these columns. I appreciate it very much.)
Anyway, the moment is here. After grading each of the Royals’ players during the first two weeks of this series and laying out what I think the plans should be for the pitching staff, I’ve finally gotten around to what everyone really wants to know:
What that batting order is going to look like for a Royals team that will finally break through and contend.
A big factor in determining what the lineup will look like has been the acquisition of Mike Jacobs. Let me go on the record by saying that I don’t really like this trade, even though middle reliever Leo Nunez won’t be that difficult to replace and most Royals’ fans are excited that they’ll finally see a first baseman who hits more than six homers (yes I’m looking at you, Ross Gload and Doug Mientkiewicz).
However, one shouldn’t look at what the Royals have had at first base when they consider this trade. They should look at what they could have. And with Billy Butler, Ryan Shealy and Kila Ka’aihue all seemingly capable of performing about as well as Jacobs for a fraction of the price, all this trade seems to do is jack up the payroll for a guy who has a low on-base percentage, hardly ever walks and can’t hit left-handed pitching.
I’ll expand a little more on this later. I do hope I’m wrong. I hope Jacobs hits 40 bombs and slugs .600. That would be a welcome sight, considering the Royals haven’t had anyone slug even .500 the last two years and have never had someone hit over 36 home runs in their history. Jacobs slugged .514 this year and hit 32 homers, so he should at least provide some punch for a lineup that has been lacking it. But the question is, at what cost?
So, without further ado, let’s break it all down. Remember, these are not my predictions for what the Royals will actually do, it’s what I think they should do. Here it is, then, starting with my plan for the 2010 starting lineup, in the order I would have them hit:
Starters
Center Field; Coco Crisp I was also skeptical of acquiring America’s Favorite Cereal when the Royals did so about two weeks ago, but upon further review, I have decided that he provides much of what the team needs. They haven’t had a true leadoff hitter since they traded Johnny Damon (I was 14 years old then, just to give you an idea of how long ago that was). Crisp has averaged 23 stolen bases per year the last three seasons; no one had more than 11 for the Royals this season except Joey Gathright. So Crisp basically fills Gathright’s role, and in addition can actually do something productive besides run. Crisp isn’t a great hitter, but his .280 career average and three seasons of 60+ RBI show that he’s capable with the bat. Add his ability to take the extra base and make great plays in the outfield, and he becomes a very nice player. Baseball guru Bill James said in ’07 that Crisp was playing better defensively in center field than anyone he’d ever seen. Take it from James. The man has seen a lot of baseball.
Second Base; Mike Aviles It’s hard to expect another miracle season like we saw from the Avil-anche in ’08, but his ability to put the ball in play and handle the bat aren’t going to go away. Plus, his minor league numbers suggest a pretty consistent offensive performance, good enough to stake his claim as a solid hitter for a middle infielder and a prototypical two-hole hitter. I do think it’ll be in the Royals’ best interest to move him from shortstop to second base, though. The fans had to hold their breath every time he threw the ball across the infield, and he’s an absolute circus underneath a pop up. Moving him to second will lift some of that responsibility from his shoulders and give him shorter throws to make.
Third Base; Alex Gordon The Royals’ biggest blue chip may not have put up the stats of a true number three hitter yet, but most scouts think he will by 2010. This guy spent only one year in the minor leagues. One. He has been forced to learn on the job, but the fact that he drew 25 more walks in 60 fewer AB this year compared to last year shows that he is indeed becoming more disciplined at the plate. Once he masters the art of learning the strike zone and getting his pitch, we’ll be calling him Splash Gordon for all the moon-shots he’ll be launching into the fountains at newly-renovated Kauffman Stadium.
First Base; Mike Jacobs (against right-handers)/Ryan Shealy (against left-handers) Many think Jacobs’ home run hitting will fill a void. Indeed, the Royals were second to last in the AL in homers this season. Do you know who was last, though? The Twins, and they were one win away from the playoffs. The difference between the Royals and the Twins is walks. Only three teams in the AL since 1931 drew fewer walks than the Royals did this season. Jacobs had only 36 walks in 477 AB this year, so he’s not going to help. However, his ability to hit righties (25 HR, 23 2B, .542 slugging percentage against them this year) will get him in the lineup most of the time — for now. Jacobs hit only .218 against lefties this year, so those games will be a good opportunity to play the right-handed Shealy, who’s also much better defensively. Shealy came up from the minors in September this year and hit .301 with 7 HR and 20 RBI. He was on pace for a whopping 42 HR and 120 RBI for an entire season. He won’t hit that well, but the scouts do say he’s improved his bat speed since struggling in ’07.
Designated Hitter; Billy Butler It’s a good thing Butler and Jacobs aren’t the Royals’ only options at first base. Otherwise, they might have to add a screen behind first base to the renovation plans. Put a bat in Bam Bam’s hands, though, and he’ll be hitting everything. Butler, like Gordon, was rushed through the minors. He’d been out of high school ball only three years before being thrown onto the big stage. Most prognosticators still think the sky is the limit for him, with Bill James projecting a larger improvement out of Butler next year than any other Royal. James’ projections have him shooting up to a .357 OBP and a .460 slugging percentage next year. And that’s just one year of improvement.
Left Field; David DeJesus I love DeJesus in the six-hole. He’s never quite been a lead-off hitter with his inability to steal bases, but his good situational hitting (he hit .419 with runners in scoring position this year) and ability to put the ball in play make him ideal for cleaning up anything the heart of the order leaves on base. The Royals will also do well to have him in left with Crisp in center. Those two guys will cover some serious ground, which is vital to a pitching staff that gives up a lot of fly balls. Four of the five starters in the Royals’ rotation this year had a fly ball/ground ball ratio above the league average, and with the cavernous outfield at The K, having DDJ and Crisp running ’em down out there will save a ton of runs.
Shortstop; Mike Moustakas If you don’t know, Moustakas is the Royals’ top prospect in every single reputable source available. He was also the top prospect of any player in the Midwest League (mid-level A ball) this year. At the age of 19, Moose Tacos hit 22 bombs and slugged .468 to lead the Burlington Bees to the Midwest League title. Oh, by the way, he’s been clocked at 97-mph on the mound. Yet he is thought to be such a good hitter, no one thinks of turning him into a pitcher. The problem is that most scouts think he lacks the range to play short at the Major League level and will have to be moved to a corner position. However, I’m holding out hope that since he’s still young and maturing, he could be developed and molded into at least a slightly below-average defensive shortstop. His big stick and cannon of an arm should more than make up for that. Apparently the Royals are holding out hope for his future as a middle infielder as well; he split time evenly between short and third base this year.
Catcher; Miguel Olivo On multiple occasions I’ve hashed out why Olivo is a superior option to John Buck. We don’t need to go through all that. There are some problems with using Olivo, though. He walks so little that Tony Pena, Jr. thinks he should cool it and take some pitches, and he is much worse at hitting righties than lefties. The Royals don’t need another OBP hole like they have with Jacobs, but Buck’s deficiencies don’t allow him to make up for it. Olivo is simply the best the Royals can do right now, although it really isn’t that bad. Olivo did have 34 extra base hits in only 84 games this year, a pace for a whopping 66 over a full season.
Right Field; Mark Teahen It seems strange to have Teahen batting ninth, but when you consider that he drives the ball to the gaps and has a keen ability to run the bases and get in scoring position, he’s probably the Royals’ second best option for a lead-off hitter. Since the nine-hole hitter is considered a second lead-off man, it makes more sense. They will need someone to get on base more than Olivo to set the table for the top of the order. Plus, it isn’t a bad thing to have such a balanced lineup that you can have a 15-20 HR guy at the bottom. He’s also shown the potential to hit even better than he has the last couple years.
Bench
Catcher; Brayan Pena There is no sense in having Buck be the back-up when you can pay Pena $2.5 million less to do the job. Few people know about him, but Pena has hit over .300 in the minors for five consecutive years, and he’s a switch hitter, which is rare for a catcher. He has been held away from the show because of his lack of power, but with his ability to throw and hit for contact being better than Buck’s, it makes more sense to have him be the back-up. Plus, since Pena can switch-hit, he can help compensate for Olivo’s struggles against righties.
Utility Outfield; Mitch Maier A lot of people aren’t excited about Maier, who had only two walks and two extra base hits in 91 AB in this his rookie year. However, the Royals don’t need their fourth outfielder to be a star; he just has to fill some roles. Maier has great speed, with 99 SB in 135 attempts during his five-year minor league career. He’s also outstanding with the glove at any outfield position, so he can come off the bench with versatility, and is capable with the bat, hitting .298 and slugging .458 in his minor league career. He is simply better suited to be a fourth outfielder than any one else in the organization because of his multiple tools. There isn’t one tool he has that’s great, but he has enough of them to have a role.
Utility Infield; Alberto Callaspo AC is the best option here because he not only can play any infield position, but he is also probably the most viable option to be successful if he were pressed into full-time duty at second base. This could happen if either Aviles turns out to be a one-year-wonder, or if Moustakas can’t play short and they have to move Aviles back there. AC hits for a high average and makes the routine plays. He won’t do anything flashy, which is why the Royals have better options for an everyday starter, but he needs to be kept around for the time being.
Guy who could throw a wrench into these plans (in a good way)
First base; Kila Ka’aihue This guy was a minor league monster this year. Combined in AA and AAA, he hit 37 HR and drove in 100. His OBP was the second highest of any player at any level of the minors for any player with at least 300 AB. The Royals had a guy like that once, though. His name was Calvin Pickering, and after flaming out with the Royals, he enjoyed a nice career with the T-Bones. So I’m not going say for sure that Kila is going to make it in the show. If he hits like that in AAA again next season, though, there’s no reason to think he won’t at least be able to do what Jacobs does as a left-handed hitting first basemen. If that happens, the Royals should trade Jacobs, save about $3.5 million per year, and have a two-headed monster at first base known as, “Kila-Shealy.”
Trade these guys (if anyone will take them)
Jose Guillen With a pitching staff prone to surrendering fly balls, Guillen may actually be costing the team runs by being a statue in left field. I admit that he’s one of the most powerful bats in the lineup, but there should be enough thunder once everyone develops to pick up the slack of his absence. The Royals could also use the absence of his $12 million per year salary and poor attitude. Surely someone could use a veteran who hits 20-25 HR and drives in 100, especially if the Royals pay a portion of his salary. They should be willing to. It would likely help the club.
John Buck Since Brayan Pena is out of options on his contract, the Royals would have to put him on waivers if he didn’t make the club out of spring training. That would be a tragedy, so they need to trade Buck ASAP to make room for Pena. It shouldn’t be too much of a problem; there are a lot of teams that would take anyone as a catcher.
Ross Gload There are also plenty of teams that could use a utility guy like G-Load if they already have a core of power at the corners. He fills in nicely as a defensive replacement or could be a pinch-hitter in the NL, and that might be one role that needs to be filled on a championship-contending team. The Royals have more pressing needs than that, though, they already have enough depth at the positions he plays, and they definitely shouldn’t want their starting first baseman to have as little power as he does.
Joey Gathright Plenty of NL teams could also use a guy who can bunt or steal a base, if nothing else. Now that the Royals have filled in a guy who does that and more with Crisp, Gathright no longer has a role. He’s expendable.
Tony Pena, Jr. Let’s face it. The only reason he was on the roster at the end of the year was because his bobblehead day was in September.
Esteban German Estey is basically in the same boat as G-Load, except that he’s not even useful as a defensive replacement. Hopefully someone just needs a good, professional pinch-hitter.
Shane Costa From 2005-2007, Costa played at the Major League level sporadically and achieved only marginal success. When he has gotten a chance to play everyday, though, he’s looked very good, especially in the minors with a .311 career average and a .474 career slugging percentage. It’s possible that he’s just the typical quadruple-A player, but I really believe that if Costa got a chance to play everyday, he’d be quite productive. I just don’t think he’ll get that chance with the outfielders ahead of him in the Royals’ organization. There should be a team that recognizes that, and so the Royals could actually get a good return on him.
Summary
According to these plans, the Royals would be trading a lot of guys. Not many of them would produce great deals by themselves, but if they package several of them together, they could potentially get a couple of guys that fill key roles for years to come.
One of the holes they need to fill is at catcher. Olivo is their best option for now, but I think they should do everything they can to acquire a guy who can truly be the backstop of the future because Olivo will probably be the biggest hole in the lineup.
I’d also like to see them to try to pick up a blue-chip shortstop prospect because they would be taking quite a risk to assume that Moustakas will be able to play there defensively. If he can’t, then Aviles would have to be moved back to short (assuming his rookie year wasn’t a fluke, which is another risky assumption), thrusting Callaspo into the lineup. The Royals can probably do better than that, and if they can get a shortstop, they can move Moustakas to another position. Since he, Gordon and Teahen can probably all play third base and right field, that would create a three-man competition for two spots and minimize the risk of having a hole in the lineup.
If all these trades were made, the Royals would also lack depth in the outfield. I think the starting options are pretty solid, so they shouldn’t go out of their way to pick up another outfielder. A guy who simply provides some insurance will do. Costa would actually fit the bill, so if the Royals don’t think they can get anyone else to fill that role, they’re actually better off holding on to him. I still would like to see him traded so they can maximize the return on him, though.
Otherwise, I think this lineup can contend. Each hitter from spots 3-7 is projected to be a consistent .290+ hitter and/or be a 25+ HR guy. When over half your lineup can do that, your team is pretty good. Plus, the Royals will have speed and bat control at the top of the order, the bottom two spots still have considerable power, and the defense in the outfield and behind the plate should be downright salty, even if it’s all simply left as is. If they plan smartly, they can make it even better. These aren’t just pipe dreams for a winning Royals team. This can really happen.
