This will be the first edition of my four-part “State of the Royals” address, which will continue in each of the next three issues of Wednesday’s paper.
Comparisons to the ever-present political speeches aside, I think now is an appropriate time to evaluate the past year in Royals baseball and start planning out what the future may hold, even though it isn’t baseball season. The games may not be going on right now, but this is the time when those important evaluations and plans are primarily made.
So for the first two parts, I will grade out each of the team’s primary contributors from this past season, starting with the position players this week and moving to the pitchers next week. Each of them will get a letter grade along with my observations of them, and possibly some thoughts of mine as to how I would lean toward dealing with them in the coming years – you know, if I were the general manager of the Royals instead of the asst. sports editor of the Leavenworth Times.
Then in the final two parts of the series, I’ll go ahead and lay out those plans position by position and let you know who you should expect to see on the field in 2010, which just might include some other players that are still coming up through the system.
Why 2010, you ask? For quite some time now, when people have asked me what year I think the Royals can compete again, that’s the year I have pointed to. Given their steady rate of progression since 2005, showing an improvement of 6-7 games each year, they’ve got a great shot of having a winning season next year. I would be surprised if they went to the playoffs, but they can use next season as that next transitional year to put the pieces in place so that in 2010, they can compete for a division title in an American League Central that really doesn’t have a dynastic team.
In order to do so, however, they’re going to have to address quite a few weak spots and do it smartly. So let’s start off by looking at where they have been strong and where they need help. We’ll get to the pitchers next week, but for now here are the grades for each of the 14 position players who played in at least 70 games for the Royals in 2008, by position:
Catcher
John Buck; .224, 9 HR, 48 RBI; Grade: D As I have alluded to before, Buck is not going to cut it. It hurts me to say it because on a personal level, I like the guy better than the hot-headed Miguel Olivo. But the truth hurts. Buck’s average has never been higher than .245, and his career OBP is under .300. His home run production from 2007 was cut in half this year, and his slugging percentage dropped a whopping 64 points. Even worse, teams ran at will on him. He only threw out 17% of his opposing base-stealers. The only reason he didn’t get an F is because the Royals say he is brilliant with handling the pitchers and calling the game.
Miguel Olivo; .255, 12 HR, 41 RBI; Grade: B- Olivo gunned down more than 42% of opposing base-stealers, and racked up 34 extra base hits in only 84 games for a slugging percentage of .444. At that pace, he would’ve had 23 HR, 42 2B and 79 RBI over 162 games. Not to mention he’s actually mobile, stealing seven bases without being caught once. The Royals were unhappy with his pitch-calling, but were pleased with his improvement in September. He does lack plate discipline, however, walking only seven times all season.
Designated Hitter
Billy Butler; .275, 11 HR, 55 RBI; Grade: C Everyone has been quick to criticize Butler, whose percentages went down from his rookie year instead of up. But you have to remember that he is only 22, so he’s already ahead of the game. His numbers are comparable to that of Keith Hernandez’s at this point in their respective careers, and they are similar hitters in that they shoot the gaps and aren’t afraid to use the opposite field. Now if we could just Billy to run or play defense. He had a track record through the minors of not working on it very hard, and when the Royals questioned his mindset this year, a demotion back to the minors gave him the wake-up call he needed. His numbers rose dramatically after that, and that’s the Billy Butler we can expect to see. And hey, he only made two errors at first base in 34 games.
First Base
Ross Gload; .273, 3 HR, 37 RBI; Grade: C- Gload did what Gload does. No more, no less. He plays solid defense at first and puts the ball in play, striking out only 39 times in 388 AB. His lack of punch in the line-up, though, isn’t enough for the Royals. When your middle infield and centerfield spots don’t have much power, you can’t afford to be without it at the corners. Now the Mike Jacobs trade has created a log-jam at first with Butler, minor league studs Ryan Shealy and Kila Ka’ahiue, and the verstatile Mark Teahen and Alex Gordon, so don’t expect Gload to be around for much longer.
Second Base
Mark Grudzielanek; .299, 3 HR, 24 RBI; Grade: B Grud has a similar situation to Gload. He was very consistent, finding the gaps at a pace that would have given him 45 2B in an entire season and only committing four errors in his 86 games. He racked up his 2000th career hit and continued to have probably the strongest arm of any second baseman in the American League. However, the injuries continue to catch up with him, and at age 38, his range is diminishing. Grud has filed for free agency, so don’t expect him around much longer either.
Alberto Callaspo; .305, 0 HR, 16 RBI; Grade: B+ Callaspo caught fire in September when he finally got regular playing time after Grudzielanek’s injury, and he really showed what he can do when given the chance to play every day. On the whole season, he quietly had the fifth-highest adjusted OPS (kind of a quarterback rating for hitters, if you will) of any Royal with at least 200 AB. He’s only 25 also, and has shown in the minors that he will hit for more power. The knock on him is that he lacks range, but with Grudzielanek aging, their lateral movement is probably pretty comparable. Callaspo should at least be in consideration for the Royals of the future.
Shortstop
Mike Aviles; .325, 10 HR, 51 RBI; Grade: A- Aviles was simply amazing at times. His adjusted OPS led all Royals with at least 200 AB, as did his outstanding slugging percentage of .480. Many think he was slighted by only getting fourth in the Rookie of the Year voting, and I agree. He was near the top of every rookie category despite playing only 102 games, but clearly the voters don’t pay much attention. After all, some of them voted for Edinson Volquez, and he isn’t even a rookie. Aviles showed ability to steal bases and make great plays, although he did make some bonehead, rookie mistakes in the field as well. Those will clear up with experience, but his errant throws may not. Don’t be surprised if he gets moved to second base so that he can make shorter throws.
Tony Pena, Jr.; .169, 1 HR, 14 RBI; Grade: D- Pena literally had one of the worst offensive seasons in the history of the game for a player with at least 200 AB. I mean, it was historic. It seemed to take him a while to get it through his head that he has no power, as he continued for much of the year to swing so hard that his helmet would fly off. We’ll give him points for getting two game-winning hits and still making some spectacular defensive plays, but it would take a miracle for this guy to get back in the long-term picture.
Third Base
Alex Gordon; .260, 16 HR, 59 RBI; Grade: B- People seem to think Gordon didn’t improve from his rookie year, but a closer look reveals that he did. His average, slugging percentage and OBP all increased substantially. He became much more disciplined at the plate throughout the year, and his walks rose dramatically. In both years, he has racked up a solid number of doubles and stolen bases as well. Fans have been disappointed, though, that he hasn’t been George Brett. Relax. He doesn’t need to be Brett to be great. Besides, Brett didn’t even become Brett until after his first two seasons were over. In fact, Brett had 17 more errors at this point in his career than Gordon does, and his stats at the plate weren’t that much better than Gordon’s are. There’s a reason this guy was drafted second overall. He’s going to bust out.
Esteban German; .245, 0 HR, 22 RBI; Grade: D In a more limited role this year, German’s production suffered. He probably needs more regular playing time to get in a groove, and he’s not going to get it on this team, especially since he’s not good defensively at any position. He still draws a fair amount of walks, but I’m docking him points for flipping his bat every time he gets a hit, even if it’s only an opposite field single.
Outfield
Jose Guillen; .264, 20 HR, 97 RBI; Grade: C Guillen is frustrating. It’s like grading that kid who aces most of his tests but blows off most of his homework. He’ll drive in two runs and then let in three by jogging after a fly ball that goes past him. Actions like that lose games, and I was skeptical of him coming here from the start. Since no other team will probably be willing to take him, though, it looks like we’re stuck with him for the next two years unless we figure out a creative deal, which I just might be in support of. However, you do have to give him credit for leading the club in hits, HR, 2B and RBI. He has stayed close to his recent averages despite now playing in a cavernous ballpark. He also has the strongest arm this side of Vlad or Ichiro.
Mark Teahen; .255, 15 HR, 59 RBI; Grade: C+ On the surface, Teahen’s season appears to be a wash. His percentages all went down from 2007, and he struck out 131 times, which is way too much. But you’ve got to watch this guy play. He is the smartest base runner the Royals have had in a long time, and his ability to take the extra base helps them win games even though it doesn’t show up in the box score. Believe me, I see a lot of games. His ability to play several different positions and his strong arm are assets as well, and if he hits like he has shown he is capable of in previous years, Kansas City is going to fall in love with the guy. That’s a big “if” though. His confidence looks shaken sometimes.
David DeJesus; .307, 12 HR, 73 RBI; Grade: B+ At age 28, DeJesus has finally blossomed. He set career highs in homers, RBI, hits, stolen bases, batting average, OBP and slugging percentage, as well as career lows for errors and strikeouts per AB. He is probably the best defensive centerfielder in the AL not named Torii or Grady, and when he plays left, he might just be the best. If only he didn’t get caught stealing so much. The Royals could desperately use more stolen bases since they lack power.
Joey Gathright; .254, 0 HR, 22 RBI; Grade: D- Gathright had four extra base hits all season. Four. In 105 games. I don’t care if you’re Usain Bolt, you can’t stay on a Major League roster with that kind of production no matter how fast you are. His 21 stolen bases aren’t even worth it if he isn’t also taking the extra base on his hits. He doesn’t even get on base that much anyway, with an OBP of .311. He made some mind-blowing catches with his speed, but he also doesn’t appear to always communicate on fly balls because he’s often causing a collision. Gathright may be exciting to watch, but the Royals are going to need more than just excitement to win, and so there should be some new faces on the horizon.
